So the general election has been called for June 8th and never was an industry under more scrutiny than ours with the political pollsters have taken a battering recently having failed to predict the last general election, BREXIT and the Trump victory.
Current polling has the parties, and voting intentions looking like this:
Reading the feeds from industry luminaries is interesting, I recently came across this post from Crispin Beale (CEO of Chime’s Insight and Engagement division) “So the starting gun had been fired and the pollsters are ready to predict …. anyone can get 1000 responses but that’s not insight. The real battle ground for forecasters will be understanding the huge number of complex marginals, the impact on turn-out of “election fatigue” and then within these areas getting a truly representative sample … robust and relevant fieldwork couldn’t be more critical – cut corners at your peril …”
The response to this post has been a firm one regarding the criticality of sampling in the polling process
Of course this is something that we at QuenchTec are wholly familiar with given our involvement in the sampling industry (with our Q_Panel and Q_Community) for over 15 years. Clearly sampling and a robust methodology are going to be key to predicting the outcome of the forthcoming election and the solutions we have within the QuenchTec portfolio will assist some of the UK’s leading pollsters in getting the correct results. Naturally, a robust sampling methodology will be key, but so will knowing exactly what the people you are polling look like in your panel. With Q_Panel, not only can you select your sample using a whole wealth of profiling points, but you can also bring back the answers to questions, using either our Q_Survey platform or our industry leading “Data Import Service” which allows the user to bring back answers from ANY data collection tool.
As Crispin says “the starting gun has been fired” now let’s see who can predict not only who crosses the line first but by what margin!